Rare Earth Weekly Review from December 25th to December 29th

As of December 29th, some rare earth product quotations:Praseodymium neodymium oxide costs 44-445000 yuan/ton, returning to the level before last week’s price increase, a decrease of 38% compared to the beginning of the year; Metal praseodymium neodymium is priced at 543000-54800 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.9% compared to last weekend and a decrease of 37.2% compared to the beginning of the year. Dysprosium oxide is 2.46-2.5 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.6% compared to last weekend, and the price remains unchanged compared to the beginning of the year; Dysprosium iron is 2.44-2.46 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 2% compared to last weekend, and the price remains unchanged compared to the beginning of the year; Terbium oxide is 7.2-7.3 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.7% compared to last week and a decrease of 49% compared to the beginning of the year; Metal terbium 9.2-9.3 million yuan/ton; Gadolinium oxide costs 198000 to 203000 yuan/ton; Gadolinium iron costs 187000 to 193000 yuan/ton; 445000 to 455000 yuan/ton of holmium oxide; 47-480000 yuan/ton of holmium iron; Erbium oxide costs 275000 to 28000 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.5% compared to last week.

Since the end of the production cycle for external orders of magnetic materials at the beginning of this month, downstream procurement has continued to be sluggish. Although there is stocking demand before the holiday, most of the long-term and long-term orders have been locked in, and the remaining bulk goods are somewhat isolated. Although the market has stabilized to weaken and there have been many short-term inquiries, downstream buyers believe that praseodymium neodymium still has downward space. Currently, procurement is mainly focused on urgent orders for basic needs, such as light rare earths and heavy rare earth alloys, and the price of heavy rare earths is relatively high, Downstream cautious price suppression has led to a slowdown in the correction of actual dysprosium and terbium orders.

Looking back at 2023, the overall trend of the rare earth market was mixed, with annual bottom prices in both the first and second half of the year. The resilience demonstrated by 420000 yuan/ton of praseodymium neodymium oxide was unexpected. The external influence of policies and long-term agreements has caused extremely significant market fluctuations, with prices turning from strong to weak and then rising and falling again in March, July, and November as the dividing points. Throughout this year, we can roughly summarize several points:

After the epidemic was lifted, there was a high expectation of economic recovery at the beginning of the year, leading to frequent stocking and trading. The price of rare earths at the beginning of the year was all hope at first glance.

The low base in 2022 has led to optimistic economic data for the first quarter of 2023. Therefore, driven by expectations for the first quarter, the second quarter saw a new low in rare earth prices driven by reality.

3. The physical sensation of the second half of the year is stored under the escort of large enterprises. When the improvement of demand and consumption is completed, it is suddenly discovered that there is an increasing amount of raw material inventory in the market.

At this point, we are once again standing at the beginning of the new year, looking back at 23 years and hastily coming to an end amidst mixed hopes and disappointments. We made the initial judgment, with a low front and stable back, and the short-term market may appear in 24 years, for the following reasons:

The disappearance of low base effects and the narrowing of gap orders may lead to a narrowing of pre holiday reserves.

2. It is highly likely that a soft landing of the US economy will occur next year, and the recovery of overseas demand will boost our exports, which should be something we can look forward to.

3. It is not ruled out that policy guidance for next year will appear in a timely manner. The biggest problem in the current market is confidence, including predictions for next year. The industry is also cautious and cautious. Such weak expectations have led to a decrease in market activity, and the price of rare earths at the current level may have room for further decline.