This week (12.18-22, the same below), the market began to focus on the third batch of mandatory plans. Despite an increase of about 23.6 percentage points in the total amount compared to last year, the market feedback on this negative news was actually relatively weak. Although the market still showed weakness this week, the decline speed was significantly weakened. Based on the dual impact of policy vacancy depletion and high cost pressures, the trend this week was relatively stable.
At the same time, domestic upstream rare earth production enterprises have generally reduced or even stopped production under the influence of cost and demand winter, and sales pressure runs through the entire industry chain, including large factories. Especially during the year-end closing period this week, purchasing has become more cautious. From the current market perspective, the rare earth industry urgently needs a strong and positive boost. Therefore, over the weekend, the procurement that released news has led to a tightening of low prices. However, unlike previous speculative speculation, the industry’s judgment of the supply and demand environment is very rational. Although there has been a slight increase in inquiries, overall trading is still sluggish, and praseodymium neodymium products have not completely stopped falling, Just easing the degree of weakness, other heavy rare earth products are also continuing to make concessions in the promotion of orders.
As of December 22nd, the quotation for some rare earth products is 44-445 thousand yuan/ton of praseodymium neodymium oxide; Metal praseodymium neodymium: 535000 to 54000 yuan/ton; Dysprosium oxide 2.55-2.6 million yuan/ton; Dysprosium iron 2.5 to 2.55 million yuan/ton; 760-7.7 million yuan/ton of terbium oxide; Metal terbium 950-9.7 million yuan/ton; Gadolinium oxide costs 198000 to 203000 yuan/ton; Gadolinium iron costs 190000 to 195000 yuan/ton; 445000 to 455000 yuan/ton of holmium oxide; Holmium iron costs 470000 to 480000 yuan/ton.
From customs data, it can be seen that rare earth exports increased by 8.2% year-on-year in November. As the Western Christmas and Spring Festival approaches this week, foreign procurement has come to an end, and export demand is also in the off-season. However, with the arrival of the Chinese Spring Festival, there may be a peak in domestic and foreign stocking demand, but it may not significantly alleviate the demand gap.
From the current demand for rare earths, it seems that they are in a “small ice age”, and domestic rare earth enterprises may have to bear the burden of stealth. However, under high cost pressures and a willingness to maintain stability, it is expected that the demand will ease next week and the expected environment may make it difficult for various rare earth products to maintain stability.