This week (11.6-10, the same below), the rare earth market opened high and closed low, with overall poor performance. Major products stabilized at the beginning of the week and rebounded, while the weekend began to differentiate in terms of weight. The main reason for this decline is that although supply expectations have shifted and are in a tight equilibrium state, demand is mostly for long-term or individual wait-and-see restraint. In addition, the fear of high prices and cautious sentiment have led to price concessions in the face of several hopelessly high and rising prices.
On the 3rd, Premier Li Qiang stated at the National Regular Meeting that “we will promote the high-quality development of the rare earth industry, increase the research and industrialization process of high-end rare earth new materials, crack down on illegal mining, ecological destruction, and other behaviors, and focus on promoting the high-end, intelligent, and green development of the rare earth industry.” This led to excessive interpretation in the industry, and the market activity increased that night, until the beginning of this week.
At the beginning of the week, driven by emotions, the overall market saw a sharp increase in prices, accompanied by a small number of high priced transactions. The seemingly supportive atmosphere had already been filled. In the afternoon, the prices of various separation and metal factories remained stable, and the market was like the weather of this week – strong winds cooling down. Subsequently, prices returned to a rational range. Starting from the middle of the week, with a small amount of demand and stable prices from large enterprises, praseodymium and neodymium have stabilized in a narrow range. Despite the restraint of downstream orders and the continued bearish sentiment in the mainstream, light rare earths represented by praseodymium and neodymium have achieved a stabilizing trend.
Due to the weakening of overall demand and the lack of protection, the downward adjustment speed of heavy rare earths has accelerated. Especially after the market’s expected positive turn into negative, the speed of monetization has increased. Although the separation plant has tried to maintain stability and the willingness to lower prices is not strong, the fear mentality of bulk traders is strong. Under the judgment of short-term bearish, accelerating monetization has become the “new normal”.
As of November 10th, some rare earth products have quoted prices of 48-5200 yuan/ton for cerium oxide and 245-2500 yuan/ton for metallic cerium; Praseodymium neodymium oxide: 51-512000 yuan/ton; Metal praseodymium neodymium: 625-6300 yuan/ton; Neodymium oxide: 513-515000 yuan/ton; Neodymium metal: 625-630000 yuan/ton; Dysprosium oxide 2.57-2.58 million yuan/ton; Dysprosium iron 2.52-2.54 million yuan/ton; 7.7-7.8 million yuan/ton of terbium oxide; Metal terbium 9.8-10 million yuan/ton; 268-2700 yuan/ton of gadolinium oxide; Gadolinium iron is 250000 to 255000 yuan/ton. 54-550000 yuan/ton of holmium oxide; Holmium iron costs 560000 to 570000 yuan/ton.
This month, the General Administration of Customs released China’s import and export data for October. Overall, China’s foreign exports decreased by 6.4 percentage points year-on-year. Previously, it was predicted that October would come from a low base in the same period last year, but the actual performance was disappointed. The global manufacturing PMI in October was 47.8%, below the boom and bust line. The PMI of the US manufacturing industry was even lower by 2.3 percentage points compared to the previous month; The eurozone has been experiencing consecutive declines for five months, reaching 46.5% in October. Under the downward trend of the global economic and trade cycle, China’s economy has shown a strong domestic demand compared to external demand.
Market situation: This week, there is frequent information on low level transactions of rare earth products, and the relatively cold order volume and transaction focus are constantly being explored downwards. Although praseodymium and neodymium are still not optimistic, the stability attitude of leading enterprises has also made prices relatively stable. Based on the concentrated release of demand orders in price increases, the prediction of low probability and the pressure of enterprise funds withdrawal at the end of the year are highly likely to occur, The performance is – stable on the surface, but actual profit margin shipping.
Future prediction: Without considering political emergencies, the trend of rare earth decline may still continue and may continue for a period of time. Light rare earths or narrow fluctuations, while heavy rare earths have mixed sources and a probability of maintaining stability on the theoretical cost line.