This week (9.4-8), rare earths welcomed the best market week since the beginning of the year, with an unprecedented increase in overall market heat. The prices of all products continued to rise, with dysprosium and terbium showing the most significant increase; Since January last year, the northern rare earth has remained stable and low, and after a year and a half, it has gone up for the first time this month. With the instigation of its wings, the price of praseodymium and neodymium has been perfectly adjusted at the beginning of the week.
Turning around, summer became a story, and annual low prices became a thing of the past; Looking up, the scenery of autumn has arrived. Is this the beginning of the annual best?
If various sources of information incited prices to rise this week, it is better to say that the wind vane of leading rare earth enterprises is becoming increasingly clear. The environmental protection in the Longnan region and the closure of Myanmar can all be news, but the upward adjustment and unified sales of leading enterprises are indeed a direction and attitude, which has triggered the prices of mainstream rare earth products to rise all the way, tighten all the way, and become out of stock.
This week is once again divided into three time points. At the beginning of the week, there was a sudden upward trend, which was indeed driven by emotions. At the beginning of the week, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was adjusted to 510000 yuan/ton, which was a surprise increase of 10000 yuan compared to last weekend. Driven by a small amount of demand, after reaching a new high of 533000 yuan/ton this week, top-down procurement tends to be wait-and-see; At the second time point, in the middle of the week, the metal factory followed the trend and rose, while the magnetic material factory was surprised and remained silent, with prices leaning towards weak fluctuations; At the third time point, during the weekend, prices have risen again, accompanied by the activity of trading enterprises and a small amount of transactions, and the amount of praseodymium neodymium oxide starting from 520000 yuan/ton has temporarily settled.
Driven by the pace of internal and external environmental protection, heavy rare earths achieved a steady upward trend at the beginning of this week, and prices remained exceptionally firm. Although dysprosium terbium oxide was sold sparingly at the beginning of this week and slowed down by the end of the week, the available transaction prices did indeed stabilize. At the same time, downstream reserves also appeared in the expected high trend. Generally speaking, dysprosium and terbium products are currently in high swing, and gadolinium, holmium, erbium, and yttrium products are also constantly surpassing themselves. After more than a year of adjustment, the current consumption of dysprosium and terbium by domestic magnetic material enterprises has decreased. In theory, the demand for dysprosium and terbium has decreased, but in the face of mining inflation and resource importance, the price of dysprosium and terbium will remain stable.
As of September 8th, the quotation for some rare earth products is 525-5300 yuan/ton of praseodymium neodymium oxide; 635000 to 640000 yuan/ton of metal praseodymium neodymium; Neodymium oxide 53-535 thousand yuan/ton; Metal neodymium: 645000 to 65000 yuan/ton; Dysprosium oxide 2.59-2.61 million yuan/ton; Dysprosium iron 2.5 to 2.53 million yuan/ton; 855-8.65 million yuan/ton of terbium oxide; Metal terbium 10.6-10.8 million yuan/ton; Gadolinium oxide: 312-317000 yuan/ton; 295-30000 yuan/ton of gadolinium iron; 66-670000 yuan/ton of holmium oxide; 670000 to 680000 yuan/ton of holmium iron; Erbium oxide costs 300000 to 305000 yuan/ton, and 5N yttrium oxide costs 44000 to 47000 yuan/ton.
There are four main reasons for the tight supply of goods due to this round of price increase: 1. It is rumored that the influx of hot money has led to significant capital operations. 2. The rising oxide prices have led downstream metal factories to be unusually cautious in replenishing raw materials, leading to a slowdown in shipments. 3. The long-term cooperation of Northern Rare Earth covers over 65% of the market demand, making the real-time reference indicators in the market become electronic disks, making it easy to operate passively. 4. The expectation of a bullish year-end price has led to a positive and active sentiment.
Looking back at the 9 months of this year, the market situation after the Spring Festival is still vivid. After the industry struggles to reach the current price level, how much demand is dominant? Do praseodymium and neodymium need to be vigilant?? In the short term, it is an undeniable fact that both upstream mines and waste are relatively tight, and this will become even more tense as the market rises, which is also the reason why the separation plant is unwilling to make concessions; The metal factory is looking ahead and looking back, with a surge in raw materials before it, as well as a need to control the production and demand. This is also the reason why the oxide has fluctuated and the metal has stabilized in recent weeks. There has been an increase in shipments of heavy rare earth dysprosium in the middle and later stages of the week, and there is a small consensus that it is safe to drop the bag. The trend of terbium products may tend to be more stable.