October 2023 Rare Earth Market Monthly Report: Rare earth prices slightly decreased in October, with a high front and a low back

“In October, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of the domestic manufacturing industry was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month and a contraction range, indicating a slight decline in the level of manufacturing prosperity. From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises is 50.7%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month, and continues to be above the critical point; The PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises was 48.7% and 47.9% respectively, a decrease of 0.9 and 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, below the critical point.
Consistent with the trend of the domestic manufacturing procurement manager index, mainstream rare earth product prices remained basically stable in October, with a slight decrease. Downstream enterprise orders have decreased compared to September, and overall demand has decreased. The price of dysprosium and terbium has been declining all the way this month. Although neodymium iron boron enterprises stock up in small quantities after the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the fluctuation in metal praseodymium neodymium prices is relatively small due to the impact of high oxide prices, and the overall trend is high before low.”
01.Main Product Price Statistics
This month, the prices of commonly used rare earth oxides such as praseodymium neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, erbium, holmium, gadolinium, and other elements have remained stable with some decline. The reason is that the demand has decreased. Praseodymium neodymium oxide decreased from 524000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 511000 yuan/ton, dysprosium oxide decreased from 2.705 million yuan/ton to 2.647 million yuan/ton, terbium oxide decreased from 8.531 million yuan/ton to 8.110 million yuan/ton, erbium oxide decreased from 310000 yuan/ton to 286000 yuan/ton, and holmium oxide decreased from 635000 yuan/ton to 580000 yuan/ton.
 
Usually in mid November, orders for the following year will begin to be signed. Based on orders for smartphones and new energy vehicles in the third quarter of this year, orders for 2024 are expected to increase.
2.Production of some end products in September
From the above data, it can be seen that the production of smartphones, new energy vehicles, service robots, computers, and industrial robots increased in September, while the production of air conditioners and elevators decreased. Among them, smartphones have the highest growth rate, while air conditioning and elevators have decreased slightly.
 
From the production of terminal products and the price trend of metal praseodymium neodymium in September, although the production of smartphones and service robots increased significantly in September, the price growth of praseodymium neodymium metal was not significant. On the contrary, the price trend of praseodymium neodymium metal was similar to that of new energy vehicles. Looking forward, the price trend of praseodymium neodymium metal in the first nine months of 2023 is similar to the production trend of new energy vehicles, and the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is more affected by the new energy vehicle industry.
03
Import and export data and country classification
Year-on-year data of China’s imported rare earth metal minerals and related products from January to September 2023 (unit: kg)
In September, rare earth concentrates and related products continued to rise, with a growth rate basically consistent with August. According to current data, the import volume for the first nine months of 2023 has reached the full year level of 2022. In addition, with the increase of the total rare earth control plan this year, it can be expected that the supply of rare earths will remain sufficient this year.
Year-on-year data of China’s imports of rare earth metal minerals and related products from the United States from January to September 2023 (unit: dry grams)
In September, all products imported from the United States were rare earth metal minerals, a year-on-year decrease of 20.24%.
Year-on-year data of rare earth products imported from Myanmar by China from January to September 2023 (unit: dry grams)
The rare earth products imported from Myanmar mainly consist of two types: unidentified rare earth oxides and compounds of unidentified rare earth metals and their mixtures. In September, a total of 2484858 kilograms of unnamed rare earth oxides  were imported, and 4796821 kilograms of compounds containing unnamed rare earth metals and their mixtures were imported. The unlistedrare earth oxides  imported from Myanmar accounts for 89.22% of the total import volume of this product, and the compounds of unlisted  rare earth metals and their mixtures account for 75.76% of its total import volume.
Year-on-year data of rare earth products imported from China to Vietnam from January to September 2023 (unit: kg)
The products imported from Vietnam in September were undisclosed rare earth oxides, mixed rare earth chlorides, and compounds of undisclosed rare earth metals and their mixtures, with import volumes of 9000 kilograms, 223024 kilograms, and 25490 kilograms, respectively. The total import of rare earth products from Vietnam in the first nine months decreased by 456110 kilograms compared to 2022. Currently, all imported mixed rare earth chlorides comes from Vietnam.
Year-on-year data of imported Malaysian rare products from China from January to September 2023 (unit: kg)
The products imported from Malaysia in September were undisclosed rare earth oxides, mixed rare earth carbonate, and compounds of undisclosed  rare earth metals and their mixtures, with import volumes of 150000 kilograms, 636845 kilograms, and 412980 kilograms, respectively. The mixed rare earth carbonate imported from Malaysia accounts for 43.7% of the total import volume of this product.