On the 30th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for November, which was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The level of manufacturing prosperity is still declining, below the critical point.
This week (11.27-12.1, the same below), the rare earth market continued its trend from last week, with heavy gains and light losses. The overall market performance was poor, and the demand weakness was evident at the end of the year. Due to the impact of buying up rather than buying down, shipments were relatively active while procurement was also wait-and-see, which to some extent deepened the sluggishness of the rare earth market.
Based on industry data at the end of the year, the growth rate may slow down, or the total amount may remain stable, and some areas may experience restraint and contraction. The overall manufacturing demand side shows a slight decline. Downstream applications, led by rare earth permanent magnets, have performed mediocrely since November. According to feedback from some magnetic material companies, a small number of orders are visible, but cost bidding is very fierce, and new orders are “losing money and making a profit”, In some regions, the operating rate of enterprises is only hovering around 50%. Downstream is forcing the midstream, which is under pressure and constantly offering discounts. The metal market has failed to reverse and is experiencing a simultaneous pullback. Raw material procurement is also being cautious and restrained, and small-scale transactions are difficult to support the trend. In addition, polishing powder continues to be sluggish, and the price of lanthanide series has also experienced a synchronous decline. Orders for fluorescent powder and hydrogen storage alloys tend to shrink.
The sluggish demand and decreasing inquiries have caused metal companies to have no plans to expand production since March when sales were fixed. Currently, priority is given to consuming inventory, and futures orders are actively corresponding. Since the excess metal supply gradually self regulates, the actual spot inventory on the metal production end is not high. However, the concentrated inventory and shipping mode have also reduced market activity. Once the market turns around, the phenomenon of rushing will further lower the market price, This week is also the same.
The high pressure on imported mineral resources and waste is even more severe, but the stable price attitude of large enterprises is a glimmer of light for heavy rare earth this week. Although the inversion of heavy rare earth oxides and alloys is still deepening, it is difficult to alleviate it. However, under the upward and downward resistance of the market, the price of heavy rare earth has steadily achieved a reverse increase.
As of December 1st, some rare earth products are priced at 47-475 thousand yuan/ton of praseodymium neodymium oxide, with a low transaction focus; Praseodymium neodymium metal ranges from 583000 to 588000 yuan/ton, with the most recent occurrence of this price range this year occurring at the end of June; Dysprosium oxide 2.67-2.7 million yuan/ton; Dysprosium iron is 2.58-2.6 million yuan/ton, with few transactions, mostly driven by low prices; 7.95-8.2 million yuan/ton of terbium oxide; Metal terbium 980-10 million yuan/ton; Gadolinium oxide is priced at 22-223000 yuan/ton, with an increase in bearish sentiment and a possibility of further price correction; Gadolinium iron is priced at 215000 to 22000 yuan/ton, with mainstream transactions at a lower level; Holmium oxide costs 480000 to 490000 yuan/ton, with transactions near a low level; Holmium iron is priced at 49-500000 yuan/ton, with a low transaction volume.
In the absence of improvement in demand, short selling and then replenishing has once again become a top-down operational strategy. According to feedback from upstream and midstream enterprises, praseodymium neodymium products are still the primary task to seize sales and quickly monetize. Therefore, it is possible to reduce costs to the extreme by selling first and then replenishing to spread costs. Dysprosium and terbium products are different from other varieties due to the confidence given by large enterprises. However, the current price is also a sensitive point, and the industry has invested more attention and risk prediction. Although the ban is mentioned again, there is sufficient imported ore, and small soil is expected to find it difficult to change its trajectory.
We have always believed that although there are differences in the trend of light and heavy rare earths, there are mutual constraints and symbiosis between the two sides. The weakness of light rare earths and the strength of heavy rare earths may gradually undergo adjustments.