A short week after the holiday (1.2-1.5, the same below), the rare earth market welcomed a new year’s bombardment. The expected bearish sentiment caused by the bottom-up contraction of the industry has accelerated the overall price decline. The pre Spring Festival stocking has not yet heated up, but the decline comes ahead of the boost in transactions.
The first thing to welcome us is the listing of Northern Rare Earth. The price of 453300 yuan/ton of praseodymium neodymium oxide and 560000 yuan/ton of metal praseodymium neodymium have both been lowered by about 8 percentage points compared to the previous listing, causing a price “earthquake”. After the price of 540000 yuan/ton of metal praseodymium neodymium remained stable for half a month, the metal praseodymium neodymium directly halved to 520000 yuan/ton after the listing price arrived.
As of Friday, the main rare earth oxide products are priced at 42-425000 yuan/ton of praseodymium neodymium oxide; 42500-435000 yuan/ton of neodymium oxide; 0.35-0.38 million yuan/ton of lanthanum oxide; Cerium oxide ranges from 0.6 to 6800 yuan/ton; Dysprosium oxide costs 2.28-2.33 million yuan/ton; 6.7-7 million yuan/ton of terbium oxide; 185000 to 190000 yuan/ton of gadolinium oxide; Holmium oxide 44-45.
Oxides have shown a clear downward trend this week. Although light rare earth oxides have experienced a 2.3% decline compared to last week and are filled with some lower prices, actual transactions are better than last week. Compared to heavy rare earth oxides, the fluctuation in transaction prices of light rare earth oxides is not significant. Due to the significant difference between the quoted price and the actual transaction, the actual transaction of dysprosium terbium series oxide has also declined significantly this week. Overall, the price control of the separation plant remained relatively firm in the early part of the week, and in the middle of the week, profits were simultaneously reduced due to pressure from the enterprise. Oxide inventory is relatively abundant for demand, and prices are gradually falling back in a stalemate.
As of Friday, the main rare earth metal products are priced at 52-525000 yuan/ton of praseodymium neodymium metal; 18000-2000 yuan/ton of lanthanum cerium metal; Metal cerium costs 25000 to 26000 yuan/ton; 2.3-232 million yuan/ton of dysprosium iron; Metal terbium 8.6-8.9 million yuan/ton; Gadolinium iron costs 178000 to 185000 yuan/ton; Holmium iron costs 450000 to 460000 yuan/ton.
The market price of praseodymium neodymium metal has also experienced a correction this week, but according to market feedback, there has been a certain increase in trading volume after the correction. Baotou and Ningbo, as low-priced metal production and sales areas, have seen a small range of lower transaction limits this week. At the beginning of the week, the expected pre year stocking procurement in the downstream market also slightly slowed down due to the mutual bidding of metals. The pressure on the metal market, which has just survived the weak and stable winter, has once again increased. Fortunately, the trend of slightly tight spot prices has not significantly improved this week.
This week, upstream bidding remains severe, with small factories and traders actively shipping at low prices close to the market. Coupled with high production costs, some production enterprises have decided to directly purchase rare earth products. According to procurement feedback, although there has been a volume increase in transactions for praseodymium neodymium oxide and metal praseodymium neodymium this week, the pressure on prices and spot delivery times are still very obvious. Although mainstream heavy rare earth products have also experienced a simultaneous pullback, factories are still showing signs of being hesitant to offer profits, and trading companies prefer to ship from relatively abundant raw materials. Overall, the prices of rare earth products have fallen, and the market initiative is biased towards buyers.
After the holiday, the financial pressure on enterprises has eased, and it is possible that all enterprises may participate in bidding at the same time. The buyer’s market transaction may cause significant pressure on cash transactions, even if downstream purchases are restrained, the procurement deadline will gradually approach next week. The overall price decline has reached the level of mid-2020, and the inventory of raw materials from upstream to midstream and downstream is at a low level, Although some purchases have been made in advance to avoid the risk of increased centralized reserve procurement before the Spring Festival, based on the improvement of next week’s transactions and the measurement of procurement requirements for spot goods, it is not ruled out that there may be a possibility of stabilizing individual volume transactions.